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The future of e-mobility

The future of e-mobility
« on: 21 August , 2019, 13:33:22 pm »
Hello everyone,

Today I am focusing my research on the future of electric mobility and I've found a lot of datum that I wanted to share with you.

Some time ago, approximately nine countries and a lot of cities announced that they would ban internal combustion engines by the year 2025, but, are these predictions going to be fulfilled? I do not believe that by 2025 internal combustion vehicles will be banned, I think that these commitments are precipitated and that our society is not yet ready to make the big leap to electric mobility. However, great advances are being made.

Electric car sales in 2018 were 1,6 million units in the world. It is a very low number compared to the 100 million cars manufactured that year. Nevertheless, in 2014, electric car sales did not reach half a million, that means that electric car sales have increased a 27% in four years. This is quite a rapid growth. As Bloomberg's analysts foresee, sales of 11 million units of electric vehicles are expected in 2025 and 30 million in 2030. Moreover, some researches claim that China will have 50% of the global sales of electric vehicles in 2025. Bloomberg's analysts also say that in 2040, batteries' price will drop to 70 dollars per kWh (63€ per kWh) and that there will be 559 million electric vehicles (buses, cars, motorbikes, etc...) in the world.

Although great advances are being made, problems are also coming up, such as the lack of battery factories and recharging infrastructures. On top of that, experts also warn that from 2020 and onwards there may be a lack of cobalt.

In conclusion, the use of electric vehicles will increase exponentially in a relatively short time, which is why our ability to generate clean energy and store it will be key in the future, because if we don't produce clean energy, we will not be able to reduce pollution.

I hope this information is useful.

Have a nice day,
Eider Del Hoyo (Spain)

Re: The future of e-mobility
« Reply #1 on: 21 August , 2019, 18:07:32 pm »
Good day Eider,

I am so excited to see you have opened such an interesting and relevant topic as it is the future of electric mobility. You have contributed with a very important view of the expected increase of electric vehicles sales, as well as giving a perspective about the largest markets for EVs.

Nevertheless, I would like to expand the information about China and its electric vehicle industry. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), China is by far the most polluting country on Earth. Around 760,000 people are estimated to die there each year because of diseases which are strictly derived from air contamination.

Therefore, due to this unsustainable scenario, China is undergoing a revolutionary plan to reduce its contamination at all cost. This strategy addresses all the economic sectors implied, agriculture, energy production, industries and what we are all interested in, transportation.

The Chinese government is trying to market the electric vehicle as one of their key impulses towards a cleaner country. Since 2007, they have spent more than 60 billion dollars to create an entirely new electric vehicle industry. In fact, all this economic effort seems to have been successful. Currently, China is the number one market for electric vehicles in the world. In 2018, more electric cars were sold in China than in the rest of the world combined.

One of the reasons for such a huge quantity of units sold is that there are around a hundred Chinese electric automakers which sell their vehicles at a lower price point in comparison to foreign electric vehicles manufacturers. This is possible because China possesses more than 50% of the global reserves of the raw materials required to build the batteries of the EVs, therefore, no tariffs are applied to final product.

Another example to showcase the potential that China has as the leading market for electric vehicles is proved when we see that Tesla Motors has decided to open their very first foreign factory on Chinese soil.

With regard to the future, and according to Statista, the Chinese electric vehicles market is expected to grow 33.64% during the 6 following years with respect to the current market size. And by 2025, according to J.P Morgan, the total volume of the Chinese market will suppose 55% of the worldwide sales.

Along the next few years, China will also experiment a significant increase of the quantity of electric buses on the roads, as some of the the largest cities in the country, such as Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Nanjing and Hangzhou have predicted to achieve 100% electric public transport by 2020. As a matter of fact, the city of Shenzhen already has 16,000 electric buses.

Nevertheless, we must not declare the environmental problem in China solved. Although the Asian country is moving towards the right direction, it is still the most endangered country due to pollution and a great part of the Chinese will continue to suffer the drawbacks and health issues of living in such a polluted country.

I hope you find all this information about China useful for you to know how the electric vehicles market is developing. I leave you a link to an article written by the Fortune magazine which expands my previous explanation.

https://fortune.com/longform/electric-car-auto-industry-china/

Best regards,
Pablo García

Re: The future of e-mobility
« Reply #2 on: 26 August , 2019, 00:16:32 am »
Hello Pablo,

It's fantastic to hear that a huge country as it is China is making great progress towards a more sustainable future. For this reason, I think it's good to know how electric mobility is being developed in different countries. This is what my post will be about today.

While China is on the top spot for the largest EV market in unit sales, it isn't the country with the highest share in plug-in EVs. In 2018, the country with the highest share of plug-in electric vehicles in new passengers car sales was Norway, followed by Iceland, Sweden, Netherlands and Finland. The Nordics. especially Norway, are making great advances and are having a quicker transition into electric mobility than other countries. The policy measures taken by the Norwegian government have been very effective and this has made Norway one of the leading countries in electric mobility. The Norwegian government has set a goal for all new cars to have zero emissions by 2025. Ireland has set the same objective but by the year 2030 and the UK by 2040.

Although Norway is the country with the highest share in plug-in EVs, it isn't the one with more electric vehicles. Naturally, the country with the highest number of electric cars is China with 1,227,770, followed by the United States (762,060), Japan (205,350), Norway (176,310) and the United Kingdom (133,670). Comparing China with Norway, there's one electric car to every 30 Norwegians while there's one electric car to every 1137 Chinese.

The ranking of the countries with the highest number of charging points is similar to the previous one. On the one hand, China with 213,903 charging points, is the country with more charging points of the world, followed by the United States (45,868), the Netherlands (32,875), Japan (28,879) and Germany (24,289). On the other hand, Australia is the country with less charging points per 100km, followed by Poland, Hungary, Finland and Mexico.

All the data that I have provided in this post I have taken it from GoCompare and Statista.

I hope this has been useful to you.

Sincerely,
Eider del Hoyo. (Spain)